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Your fall 2024 weather outlook

According to climate prediction outlooks released by NOAA this week, San Antonio’s fall will be a dry one.

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We’re ready for fall feeling nights and pumpkin-themed everything.

Photo by Frederick Gonzales

It’s never too early to talk about fall, right? Once the orange, black, and maroon decor hit store shelves and Folklores Coffee House starts serving its Punk’n Lattes, then you know it’s time to talk about the next season’s weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its newest seasonal climate outlook — here’s what the next three months may look like in the Alamo City.

FallWeatherSATX2024

San Antonio and Central Texas are predicted to see above normal temperatures during the fall.

Graphic via NOAA

Probability for a warmer, drier fall

The NOAA forecasts slightly higher chances — between 50% and 60% — of warmer temperatures this September, October, and November.

During that time frame, researchers also predict lower precipitation than average.

The summer’s much-needed rain helped combat the drought still plaguing Central Texas. As of most recent data, most of Bexar County was under Stage 3 water restrictions.

Graphic detailing the US drought conditions and how San Antonio's drought will persist.

The NOAA predicts that drought conditions will persist through the end of November.

Graphic by the NOAA

As a refresher, here’s what fall months typically look like in San Antonio:

A chart showing below average chances of rain for the fall months.

San Antonio could see below average rain chances.

Graphic via NOAA

An early look at winter

Although it is subject to change, NOAA also released predictions for the winter months. Researchers forecast above average temperatures through January, with less-than-average precipitation.

Drought conditions eased with record-breaking rain

July broke rainfall records — San Antonio averaged 4.25 inches of rain for the month, which is about 2.41 inches above average. We’re keeping our fingers crossed for more rain as we look ahead to the fall months.

We hope we’re not jinxing ourselves here.

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